Welcome to the next edition of the Dynasty Formula Newsletter, and a massive thank you to everyone joining us right here at the absolute ground floor.
We are incredibly grateful to have you here at day one, because what we are building behind the scenes is going to completely change how you play the game. We aren't here to give you generic waiver wire advice; we are here to apply real, systematic strategy to your roster management. Over the coming weeks and months, we have an absolute avalanche of premium content coming down the pipeline—including deep-dive market guides, advanced draft strategy breakdowns, and tactical advice rooted in years of high-level experience and operational expertise. We know what it takes to build a winning system, and we’re here to help you outsmart your leagues and win real money. Lock in, stay ahead of the curve, and let's get to work.
Now, into this week’s topic:
The Formula: Cracking the July Market
The Macro Strategy: Front-Running the Dynasty Market
In dynasty, player value is driven by perception, not just box scores. Right now, your league-mates are relying on outdated, static end-of-season mental data. They are looking at what a player did in December, completely blind to how the NFL landscape has shifted over the spring.
But high-stakes managers don't wait for the dynasty consensus to move. They front-run it by tracking Best Ball ADP (Average Draft Position).
Right now, millions of dollars are being drafted in high-volume, redraft best-ball tournaments. Because these drafters are risking real capital on the upcoming season, the best-ball market reacts instantly to news, coaching changes, and early training camp buzz. It is hyper-efficient, liquid, and fast.
The dynasty market, by contrast, is slow. It’s sticky. Dynasty managers are emotionally attached to their players, or they're simply checked out until August. This lag creates a massive, predictable pricing inefficiency.
The Formula Case Study: Tory Horton (WR, Seattle Seahawks)
To see this strategy in action, look no further than Seattle sophomore wideout Tory Horton.
The Dynasty Perception: The casual dynasty manager looks at his final rookie stat line and sees just 13 catches before a shin injury landed him on IR in November. They view him as a generic, late-round depth piece buried behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba. They assume he's an afterthought.
The Best Ball Reality: Sharp redraft players are drafting Horton aggressively as a late-round flier because they look at efficiency metrics, not just totals. Before going down, Horton flashed absolute elite-level conversion, hauling in 5 touchdowns in just 8 games. With Rashid Shaheed becoming more of a downfield threat, JSN and Cooper Kupp operating more from the slot, and a massive opening for Seattle's WR3 vertical threat, best-ball rooms are already pricing in a massive Year 2 leap. Plus, he may sneak in another few TD’s as a returner. Don’t expect massive target volume unless there are injuries to Shaheed or JSN, however, he could make for a cheap stash now that could pay off massively later.
By executing a trade for Horton this weekend, you are buying him at his suppressed "injured rookie" price tag, completely front-running the inevitable wave of training camp highlights that will re-price him as a premium dynasty asset by August.
The Trading Window:
When a player's redraft stock surges in July best-ball rooms, it’s a leading indicator of the market changing. It means the sharpest minds in fantasy have realized a player's situation, volume, or depth-chart security has fundamentally improved.
If you wait until the preseason games start to buy that player, the dynasty community will have caught up, and the price will double, because everyone is watching the games and paying attention. But if you strike right now, you can buy that asset at yesterday's dynasty price. You are essentially using the best-ball market as a crystal ball to see where dynasty trade values will be in one month.
By understanding this algorithmic flow of player value, you stop guessing on trades. You start executing pure market strategy.
Here are three massive market inefficiencies you need to exploit via trade before training camps open in August and the rest of your league wakes up:
1. Jayden Higgins (WR, Houston Texans)
The Valuation Gap: The public is still viewing Houston's WR room through last year's lens.
The Reality: Higgins has quietly locked down the clear WR2 role across from Nico Collins and has been the absolute standout of OTAs. Houston is expected to run heavier tight end formations this year, meaning targets will be highly concentrated to the top two wideout spots. The uncertainty of Tank Dell’s return also lingers, as he works his way back from the torn ACL he suffered in December 2024. Also, Nico Collins is a prime candidate to potentially lose value next year, regardless of how well Stroud plays in 2026. Nico will be 28 next offseason, and if he doesn’t have a top 10 finish at WR, you’ll see his startup draft position begin to fall. Pivot to Higgins for a fraction of the price, who aligns much more with the career window of CJ Stroud.
The Move: Trade away a late future 2nd-round pick or 2-3rd rounders to a manager who thinks they're just selling a "Texans depth piece."
This is a smash to the Higgins side. Marks is already older for an RB that hasn’t finished his rookie contract yet. Plus, with the offensive line upgrades Houston made, and David Montgomery taking most of the rushing duties in that backfield, give me the starting WR over the backup RB. Easy one.
2. Tyler Shough (QB, New Orleans Saints)
The Valuation Gap: In Superflex and 2QB leagues, starting quarterbacks are gold, yet Shough is still being priced as an uncertain placeholder.
The Reality: Once Shough took over the starting job in Week 8 last year, he quietly finished as a high-end QB2, even flashing QB6 upside in points per game due to an aggressive 25 rushing yards per contest baseline. Now in Year 2, New Orleans has handed him Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator and added weapons like Travis Etienne and Jordyn Tyson. Of course, many critics point to his age (he turns 27 in September) but considering we play dynasty in 2-3 year windows, he’s a locked in starter that could ascend to new heights this year. His supporting cast is young, strong, and ascending. Don’t be surprised to see this team win the NFC South in 2026.
The Move: If you need QB depth, buy him now before his price doubles. I’m comfortable trading a late or future 1st round pick or equivalent value.
This is right about the going rate. Many people are hesitant to trade 27 1sts because of their current perceived value (stay tuned for more on this topic coming very soon), so many will settle for the 28 1st. I personally don’t hate being on either side of this, but if I need a QB, it makes sense to me.
3. Christian Watson (WR, Green Bay Packers)
The Valuation Gap: The dynasty community is treating the Green Bay wide receiver room like a completely unpredictable four-way committee, suppressing Watson’s value down to a generic mid-tier flex option.
The Reality: While Jordan Love does spread the ball around, the underlying data proves that when Watson is fully healthy, his route participation and targeted air yards point to an elite, uncapped WR1 ceiling. After an entire offseason focused on hamstring durability, he enters camp as the clear alpha vertical threat in an elite offense. Watson is undoubtedly the WR1 in this offense when healthy, so capitalize on managers who only see the risk or only remember him for flashes because they don’t really watch his film.
The Move: Capitalize on the "Packers WR carousel" narrative and acquire him for a future 2nd and something small, or a package of safer, lower-ceiling players before he logs a multi-TD game in August. I’ve seen him go for a few 2nd round picks, and even traded for Shakir and Teslaa. Scoop him up before you’re smacking your forehead later. (Also a potential early-season sell, take the value now and reap the rewards later)
Holy Cow. I would take the Watson and a 1st side in a heartbeat. And this trade went down only 2 weeks ago. Acquiring the extra first in this deal is a great value, and a nice way to gain assets off of the hype of Brown to New England. While he may have a good year, the vaue still favors the Watson side.
4. Jalen McMillan (WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The Valuation Gap: Most managers are looking at Tampa Bay as a two-man show dominated by Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka, completely ignoring the massive change in the team's offensive landscape. McMillan is being treated as a fringe roster piece.
The Reality: The underlying metrics from McMillan's rookie year were incredibly efficient, and the coaching staff has spent the offseason hinting at a major sophomore expansion for him. With Godwin playing more in the slot, McMillan has quietly locked down the starting boundary receiver role, placing him a single injury away from an absolute targets avalanche in an aggressive passing offense.
The Move: Throw out a generic future 3rd-round pick or package him into a 2-for-1 trade before training camp highlights of him running with the first-team offense start blowing up on social media.
This, is a steal. Rather than taking a shot on a rookie that will likely take time to play, or never really see the field at all, take the known commodity in McMillan. With Godwin’s injury history and Baker’s aggressive play-style, McMillan could end up a potential league-winner for a mere 26 - 2nd or a 27 -3rd. This is a no-brainer.
5. Travis Hunter (CB/WR, Jacksonville Jaguars)
The Valuation Gap: The only potential defensive pro-bowler to make this list for dynasty, Hunter presents a unique buying opportunity. With reports circulating that Hunter will be a full-time Cornerback, dynasty players are understandably nervous.
The Reality: Some leagues are devaluing him way too far. I think the thing that isn’t talked about as much is the packages that he will have on offense. I believe that due to need, he will play a lot of Corner this year. However, I believe long-term, he will eventually move more towards Wide Receiver. WR’s get paid more than CB’s, and if Hunter truly takes off, he will want to be paid as a WR. Whether he is with the Jaguars for his second contract or he moves to another team, they will want to get their value out of his playmaking ability on offense.
The Move: Acquiring Hunter now is with an understanding that his production will be limited at CB while getting some targets at WR. There’s a better chance that he is mainly a flex piece until he takes more snaps on offense. Acquire him this way, for a late 26 - 2nd round pick, or maybe 2 - 3rd round picks. Hell, acquire him for this one if you can:
Highway Robbery. Not much to say here, other than yes. Do this.
This is a little more realistic. Dynasty is about taking big swings. While I can see some potential value in Downs, he doesn’t have the athletic upside that Hunter has. I’m willing to do this trade, especially if I’m not ready to compete this year.
The Dynasty Formula Rule of Thumb
In early July, buy the hidden rookie efficiency and the vacated volume that the casual public is bored with. Once August hits, training camp hype will price them completely out of reach.
The Micro-View: What We're Watching:
Keep a close eye on the New York Giants passing game. While the mainstream media is tracking Malik Nabers' target share, tight end Isaiah Likely is quietly positioned to be the real engine of Jaxson Dart’s intermediate passing attack. Following the massive amount of vacated targets left behind by Wan'Dale Robinson's departure, camp reports indicate Likely has quickly established himself as Dart's security blanket. John Harbaugh brought him over for a reason, and if he stays healthy, he’s one of their most athletic playmakers on offense with his size/speed combination. His current price doesn't reflect the elite TE1 upside he possesses in this offense—make a move for him before the pads come on. Look to get him for 2 - 2nds or one 2nd and a hyped-up rookie like Kaytron Allen.
Coming Soon to the Formula Ecosystem
We have loads of content coming soon to help you dominate your leaguemates. The Dynasty Formula Podcast, and our fully functional website are in the works. Stay tuned and enjoy getting in on the ground floor before we take off.
We will also dive into three specific players whose best-ball values are skyrocketing, giving you the perfect blueprint to exploit your leaguemates before training camp opens.
Thank you for being here at day one. Tell your favorite leaguemate to subscribe—and don't tell the ones you want to beat. (Just kidding, tell them too.)
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